If you’d like to avoid terrible advice, cognitive biases, and poor decisions this episode is for you. We’ve all made some these mistakes that have lead to poor decisions, but we have the opportunity using behavioral economics and neuroscience to become a truly wise decision maker.
I’m joined by Dr. Gleb Tsipursky known as the Disaster Avoidance Expert, who has over 20 years of experience dramatically empowering leaders and organizations to avoid business disasters by addressing potential threats, maximizing unexpected opportunities, and resolving persistent personnel problems. Dr. Tsipursky has a strong research and teaching background in behavioral economics and neuroscience with over 15 years in academia, including 7 years as a professor at the Ohio State University and before that a Fellow at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill.
We discuss how tribalism, fight or flight and over confidence lead executives, risk managers, and YES … even internal auditors to make poor decisions and not consider personnel aspect when making decisions and auditing processes. We even discuss some practical ways you can avoid some of the 30 most dangerous cognitive errors.
Learn more about Dr. Tsipursky at: https://disasteravoidanceexperts.com/ or reach out via e-mail at: [email protected]
You can also connect with him on LinkedIn at: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dr-gleb-tsipursky/
Get a copy of Gleb’s latest book: Never Go With Your Gut: How Pioneering Leaders Make the Best Decisions and Avoid Business Disasters (Avoid Terrible Advice, Cognitive Biases, and Poor Decisions) mentioned during this episode at:
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Jason Mefford: Welcome to another episode of jamming with Jason. Hey. Today I am excited to have glib to Persky with me, who is an expert, kind of in decision making and this is going to be really relevant for all of you and internal audit.
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Jason Mefford: Especially as you are looking at risk management and some of the decisions that we end up kind of screwing up sometimes okay so glad welcome on. I’m excited to have you here. How you doing today.
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Gleb Tsipursky: I’m doing great, and thanks for having me on, Jason. It’s a pleasure. Yeah, we often screw up risk management.
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Gleb Tsipursky: And it’s, it’s a big issue.
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Gleb Tsipursky: I was actually talking to a to a professor who I was corresponding with and he sent me a paper of his that found in a 10 year study that CFO.
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Gleb Tsipursky: Tend to be way too confident about their risk portfolios and, you know, they really make bad bets on the stock market investments, because they tend to be to confidence. So that’s one thing we can talk about those just
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Jason Mefford: Something that came. Yeah. No, it’s, I mean, that’s a great point because, you know, I see this, I see this a lot. I mean, I used to be chief executive couple times.
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Jason Mefford: Was also chief risk officer. Okay, so, so I’ve kind of seen both sides of this. And I, and I see exactly what you’re saying, right, is that we, we tend to get overconfident and our ability to manage these things, you know, because
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Jason Mefford: It’s like I sometimes I kind of use the analogy of driving right and and I’m an excellent driver. I’m an excellent
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Jason Mefford: Driver. Right, right, man.
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Jason Mefford: It’s like, because I’m an excellent driver. I won’t get into the accident.
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Gleb Tsipursky: Right.
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Jason Mefford: And it’s like, Okay, there’s statistics. Right, yes, even though you’re a safe driver. There’s still statistics that do kind of, you know,
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Jason Mefford: Come over everything. So, so I wanted to talk to, because I know you just had a new book that came out. Never go with your gut, how pioneering business leaders make the best decisions and avoid business failures. So maybe
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Jason Mefford: That’s right there is the one that right there, on the shelf. Right. Yeah.
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Gleb Tsipursky: That’s
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Jason Mefford: Right, so, so maybe just give give everybody just kind of a brief overview of the book.
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Jason Mefford: And then let’s kind of jump in and talk about you know how we can make better decisions, avoid some of these business failures or bad decisions when it comes to you know risk and even
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Jason Mefford: Excuse me, how we kind of, you know, convert that over into the internal audit space because there’s a lot of crossover and carry over here. So tell us a little bit about the book.
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Gleb Tsipursky: Sure, happy to. Well, the first thing is to understand is the title. Many people tell us to go with your gut.
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Gleb Tsipursky: And that is typical that people go with their intuition, they feel comfortable growing going with it.
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Gleb Tsipursky: But that’s very wrong. According to recent research and cognitive neuroscience, for example, just like I mentioned, the C FOS who tend to be way too confident about their estimates of the finances the stock market.
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Gleb Tsipursky: And there’s quite a bit of research showing that people who are too confident their companies, they are too aggressive their companies have bad performance. As a result, and they’re finding said bad performance. So
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Gleb Tsipursky: And another funny thing I mentioned about the the driving. So there was an interesting study done a number of studies that show similar results when you ask undergraduates. How many, you know, are you a good driver or a bad driver or you on average driver.
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Gleb Tsipursky: 95% of undergraduates say that there are good drivers that are above average.
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Gleb Tsipursky: 9393 95 93% of other graduates say they’re a good driver that are above average driver. So what does that mean you know they have, they don’t have nearly as much experience as the UI, but that’s kind of what people think that’s just the measure of overconfidence. Right.
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Jason Mefford: Well no I yeah yeah cuz I’d heard another study about I accuse
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Jason Mefford: Because I’ve used this in some of the trainings that I’ve done, you know, same
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Jason Mefford: Kind of thing where, you know, imagine if you were in a room of 1000 people you went around ask everybody. Are you above or below average IQ.
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Jason Mefford: And I think the number that the studies came up with it was it was over 80% again, maybe it wasn’t quite as high as 93%
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Jason Mefford: But you know, that’s, that’s one of those where you’ve got to go. Okay, just a minute timeout people. Right. You can’t. You can’t just go with your gut. You got to start having some data. And what is average actually mean
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Jason Mefford: 50% above 50% below.
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Jason Mefford: Right. So when you start going through and understanding that
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Jason Mefford: You can see that. Well, yeah, we probably are overconfident much more overconfident than we should be and it doesn’t mean that we’re horrible or anything like that. Right.
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Jason Mefford: You know, but but the fact is it’s okay to be average. I mean, if you look at statistics what 68% is one standard deviation
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Jason Mefford: So, so yeah, so
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Gleb Tsipursky: I’ve
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Jason Mefford: Overcome overconfidence right this is this is a big issue. So how do we
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Gleb Tsipursky: overcome this, I’ll, I’ll talk about the book and then get into overconfidence. But I just want to mention about what you’re saying.
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Gleb Tsipursky: It’s not only simply undergraduates and people who is estimate, they’re accused. It’s also people who are service professionals high qualified service professionals like internal auditors.
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Gleb Tsipursky: Their studies. I don’t remember a study of internal auditors, but I remember studies of pretty similar people so university professors in terms of education and
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Gleb Tsipursky: Analytical perspectives on lawyers, if he asked university professors know how good is your teaching, do you think, are you above average or below average your average you’ll get about 90% of university professor say that above average.
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Gleb Tsipursky: And lawyers about their professional credential their professional ability, they’ll say about 80% will say,
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Gleb Tsipursky: That I have above average. So that’s, those are some other examples where we tend to be too confident about our professional abilities.
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Gleb Tsipursky: And of course, the same thing happens with CFO, is that I mentioned earlier in the study and earlier in the interview that and that results in really bad performance when you’re overconfident about your ability
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Gleb Tsipursky: So the book talks about the kind of dangerous judgment errors we make the cause of how our brains wired.
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Gleb Tsipursky: We don’t really notice them we feel comfortable with something. And because we feel comfortable with it, we go with it.
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Gleb Tsipursky: We think that this is the right thing to do. It’s a fundamental fundamental fundamental error, just because we feel confident with something we feel good about it.
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Gleb Tsipursky: We think it’s the right thing to do and we need to distance ourselves from this feeling of the right thing, meaning that and believing that this feeling means it is actually the right thing.
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Gleb Tsipursky: We need to distance ourselves from the feeling that we trust certain information and then believing that that information is accurate. The feeling of trust is just a feeling
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Gleb Tsipursky: Doesn’t necessarily indicate that the information is accurate. This is, this comes this feeling comes from our gut intuitions and I’ve got intuitions, it might be surprised are actually not at that that for the modern business environment.
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Jason Mefford: No they’re not.
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Jason Mefford: No.
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Gleb Tsipursky: I mean, the modern business environment has been around only since world war two or got intuitions that actually adapted for the savanna environment when we’re hunters foragers and gatherers.
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Gleb Tsipursky: We lived in small tribes of 15 to 150 people. So that’s one of the fundamental things that causes us to make bad decisions as our tribal instincts.
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Gleb Tsipursky: We like people who look like us would think like us who do things like that. So when we perform. You know what internal auditors perform audits, they tend to
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Gleb Tsipursky: Give people who look like them with things like them and so on. They tend to not order them as well as they should. They tend to give them too much of a pass.
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Gleb Tsipursky: And that’s kind of one issue for internal auditors. Another thing is with tribalism is climbing the social hierarchy.
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Gleb Tsipursky: So we are very tempted to go to the top of the social hierarchy, because that’s what survival meant it meant that
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Gleb Tsipursky: If we’re at the top of the social hierarchy, we get the most resource of this we’re likely to survive. So that’s kind of the tribalism. The other issue is the fight or flight response. It was very good for our ancestors to jump at 100 shadows.
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Gleb Tsipursky: This one saber tooth tiger. You’ll also hear it called the saber tooth tiger response in our current business environment. We don’t have nearly as many saber tooth tigers.
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Gleb Tsipursky: Well,
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Jason Mefford: It depends on who the executive is if you’re talking to a saber tooth tiger right
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Gleb Tsipursky: They could, but the they’re not friends to your life and honestly what we tend to over respond to threats in our business environment now professional environment where you spend
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Gleb Tsipursky: Too much to aggressively jump too fast too soon make decisions way to quickly.
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Gleb Tsipursky: And we don’t take the time to thank them for. So that’s kind of two big fundamental aspects that cause us to make dangerous judgment errors that cognitive neuroscientist.
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Gleb Tsipursky: And behavioral economists like myself call cognitive biases. So you’ve probably heard the term cognitive biases someone in the air, and that’s what cognitive biases are
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Gleb Tsipursky: They result from our evolutionary heritage that result from the wiring in our brain that causes us to process information slower than it would be ideal for us to produce it in very problematic ways
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Gleb Tsipursky: And the book talks about the 30 most dangerous cognitive batters cognitive biases for business leaders and the for business professionals like internal auditors.
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Gleb Tsipursky: And then talks about how we can address them effectively. So gives techniques that you can use to address them. You can both assess the last chapter of the book. It is an assessment that you can use to assess
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Gleb Tsipursky: Where they might show up in your team in your organization and your own work and then kind of techniques you can use to address these cognitive biases effectively in your job. And so that’s what the books about
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Gleb Tsipursky: Sweet.
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Jason Mefford: Well yeah, I know it’s
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Jason Mefford: You know, it’s interesting because I’ve besides being in the business world psychology
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Gleb Tsipursky: Is like
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Jason Mefford: One of my side passions.
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Jason Mefford: So I’ve been studying psychology and things like
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Jason Mefford: Cognitive bias in some of these things as you were talking about just kind of the neuroscience behind the brain and I’m trying to bring that more to this very analytical area of audit right
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Jason Mefford: And again, like you said, I mean evolutionary wise you can understand why as humans we operate the way we do.
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Gleb Tsipursky: I mean it’s it’s
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Jason Mefford: Evolutionary Biology right
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Jason Mefford: Just like you said it wasn’t too long ago that we were having to
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Jason Mefford: You know, run from saber tooth tigers, if you will. Right.
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Jason Mefford: But, but the current, you know, business environment doesn’t doesn’t require that usually and there’s a whole other stuff around stress that
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Jason Mefford: We won’t go down that road. But that’s why why people feel so stressed out today as well.
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Jason Mefford: But, but I think it’s you know it’s interesting because like you said, what we talked about already, as some of this overconfidence. Yes, the tribalism in this fight or flight.
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Jason Mefford: That are some of the things behind maybe why we’re making some of these bad decisions and and you know, like you said at the beginning, I mean, everybody says, Go with your gut.
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Jason Mefford: Check. I tell people to go with your gut or your heart on certain things, right, because again, when it’s when it’s personal in nature. When you’re the one that’s impacted
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Jason Mefford: Go with your heart, baby. You know, it’s like, it’s not that big a deal. But if you’re the CFO or the chief audit executive of a big company.
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Jason Mefford: And you make a bad decision that can lead to, like, like the title of your book, you know, business failures which can end up impacting literally millions of people and and you know you can see in the newspaper all the time. I mean, any any any any given week
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Jason Mefford: You can see an executive who’s totally screwed something up. Absolutely. And, and it impacts. Lots of people. Yep.
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Gleb Tsipursky: It does, it does. I mean, look at what happened with we work company that was valued in the beginning of 2019 at 75 billion.
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Gleb Tsipursky: And it went forward with the IPO, despite some internal folks we work, including internal risk auditors.
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Gleb Tsipursky: Encouraging while discouraging the leadership from doing that. I mean, they really didn’t do as much as they should. When we look back at what happened in the situation.
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Gleb Tsipursky: Now, when the external risk auditors were investigating this situation they saw that there was a great deal of self dealing going on.
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Gleb Tsipursky: And very bad governance structures where Adam Newman, the leader, the founder of a we were pushed for the IPO was
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Gleb Tsipursky: Actually owning some properties lending them to we work he had
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Gleb Tsipursky: Other screw ups in the governance structure. He had shares that he owned that were worth 10 Volts per share. And he was selling
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Gleb Tsipursky: Shares, the World War One World per share, and a number of other issues with the governance structure that really should have been taken care of by internal risk auditors, which wasn’t taken care of before the IPO. And as a result, right now.
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Gleb Tsipursky: The company by the end of 2019 the company was worth about $7 billion.
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Jason Mefford: We act because I noticed, I think it was, you know, last week, you know, when I saw the hundred billion dollar poof, you know, on Wall Street.
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Jason Mefford: And it was we work and it was Uber. Yeah, you know, the valuations of both of those companies were downgraded so far.
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Jason Mefford: That 100 $100 billion worth of market cap just went poof right that’s 100 billion dollars worth of wealth that just went away because of some bad decisions that people made right
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Gleb Tsipursky: Exactly. And when we work. Of course it was though to go to the IPO but 70 billion with
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Gleb Tsipursky: Uber. The problem again that internal risk Auditors should have caught was the culture of sexual harassment that wasn’t really interest when it needed to be addressed that resulted in really bad situation with the Uber CEO.
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Gleb Tsipursky: Having to leave because he was implicated in not addressing this culture right so this should have been addressed, and this was, these are just a couple of the problems.
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Gleb Tsipursky: That come from tribalism. And here what I want to talk about, especially with regard to internal auditors is tribalism. This is the big problem. So I give a number of presentations to soccer. The information security and
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Gleb Tsipursky: Of Association, which has a number of internal auditors and what they, and when I talked to them.
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Gleb Tsipursky: One of the biggest challenges as the day experience that is that when they perform audits, they
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Gleb Tsipursky: Find that there are people issues. A lot of people issues like we talked about with
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Gleb Tsipursky: Adam Newman at we work and this culture of sexual harassment at Uber, that the result of the hundred billion dollar poof, but they don’t really know how to address people issues. They don’t really, they’re actually trained
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Gleb Tsipursky: In addressing people issues. So they focus on the process issues on technical issues technology, even though people are behind the technology. So, for example,
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Gleb Tsipursky: They focus on. Let’s say this, we integrated the new technology people aren’t using it. Well, maybe it’s the fault of the technology, whereas really it’s a change management issue.
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Gleb Tsipursky: Where the people who are should be using this technology are not using the technology as a result there’s increased risk which the technology was supposed to address. And that’s a kind of a typical case study that I hear when I do soccer presentations that I talked to folks about
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Jason Mefford: Yeah, cuz it is. I mean, underlying a lot of the issues, you know, which is interesting because, again, you know, internal auditors. We pride ourselves on
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Jason Mefford: On testing internal controls and processes but implicit in that is that people are part of the process and we tend to forget that quite often and like you said, I think sometimes it’s because
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Jason Mefford: You know, a process is easy to to to kind of say by merrily right it’s it worked or it didn’t work. So it’s really easy for an auditor at that point to say you know it, it worked or didn’t work. And it’s a clear and easy easy thing to kind of put out there.
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Jason Mefford: You know and like you said, though, that these people issues and this is let a lot of people like try to audit culture and some other things which I’ve got my own feelings on that but
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Jason Mefford: For it for a different podcast but but like you said that we we get to this point to where
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Jason Mefford: You know, there, there is some of these people issues and a lot of a lot of people turn a blind eye to some of the tribalism issues, right.
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Jason Mefford: You know, and I’m old enough to remember a lot of the big failures that we’ve had. Right. And in fact, we will just go back to 2008
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Jason Mefford: I know a lot of people who were partners at public accounting firms that turned a blind eye.
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Jason Mefford: I know a lot of people that were internal audit CFO that mortgage companies that turned a blind eye. I know a lot of people that were executives have banks.
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Jason Mefford: That turned a blind eye and it’s it’s those kind of things. You know, where again this tribalism, like you’re talking about comes in because we don’t want to be the one that kind of rocks the boat.
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Jason Mefford: Or says something and it’s not just 2008. I mean, I can go back and there’s lots of other different things so
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Gleb Tsipursky: Look at, look at Arthur Andersen and
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Gleb Tsipursky: That’s
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Gleb Tsipursky: Worked at Arthur Andersen. Yeah, I watched it before that.
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Jason Mefford: I watched it from the inside because I didn’t
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Jason Mefford: Hear
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Jason Mefford: Lots of people on the Enron engagement.
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Gleb Tsipursky: Yet, but yeah, Arthur Andersen as a company collapse because of it because of this kind of blind eye and not really doing what they should have with internal risk.
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Jason Mefford: Yeah, and it goes you know within Enron itself, you know, as, as a result of of what they were doing. And again, everybody kind of going along to get along and some of the people at Anderson were guilty of the same thing.
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Gleb Tsipursky: Right. Of course. Yeah.
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Jason Mefford: So, so how do we
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Gleb Tsipursky: Turn off.
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Jason Mefford: Yes. Yeah, so, so how do we actually deal with with some of this stuff because, again, I mean, I want to try to give the listeners some practical stuff.
00:17:45.210 –> 00:17:55.050
Jason Mefford: Right, so, so how do we, you know, because again, like you said, if we’re if we’re trying to make decisions and something like tribe. This tribalism comes in.
00:17:55.440 –> 00:18:08.550
Jason Mefford: How do we kind of overcome that. What are some things that we can do to try to help us make better decisions. So we don’t allow these cognitive biases to get in the way and then we make a decision that later on, we regret.
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Gleb Tsipursky: The first thing I’m going to say is a word that will scamming internal auditors emotions.
00:18:14.730 –> 00:18:16.440
Gleb Tsipursky: Emotions, yes.
00:18:16.470 –> 00:18:19.980
Jason Mefford: It shouldn’t if they’ve been listened to me for very long, but yeah.
00:18:20.310 –> 00:18:27.000
Gleb Tsipursky: I mean a lot of internal auditors are uncomfortable with with that word, but when we look at the research and cognitive neuroscience.
00:18:27.690 –> 00:18:35.310
Gleb Tsipursky: My emotions shape about 80 to 90% of our decision making. So 80 90% of our decisions are shaped by emotions, no matter how irrational.
00:18:35.880 –> 00:18:46.350
Gleb Tsipursky: Political you think you are emotions are still driving you fundamentally and if you’re not noticing them. If you’re not noticing how emotions are driving you then you’re in deep trouble.
00:18:46.950 –> 00:19:05.400
Gleb Tsipursky: So the first thing to understand is how emotions are driving you to make certain decisions. We don’t the people are Arthur and there’s some this, you know, Jason. They weren’t deliberately didn’t wake up one day and say, Hmm, let’s go to our company by giving Enron a free pass
00:19:06.540 –> 00:19:06.810
Gleb Tsipursky: You know,
00:19:06.960 –> 00:19:07.140
Gleb Tsipursky: Let’s
00:19:07.800 –> 00:19:10.740
Jason Mefford: Let’s put 120,000 people out of a job.
00:19:11.070 –> 00:19:12.660
Jason Mefford: Yes, that’s not what they were saying.
00:19:12.960 –> 00:19:23.730
Gleb Tsipursky: That’s not what they were saying. They just felt a certain way and they acted and they didn’t even notice these feelings which were guiding them away from a proper audit of Enron.
00:19:24.270 –> 00:19:31.230
Gleb Tsipursky: And the same thing in 2008 and the same thing with with a Uber. The same thing with we work in so many other companies.
00:19:31.860 –> 00:19:48.360
Gleb Tsipursky: The feel if the feelings are not noticed, then you’re not going to get anywhere. So the first thing to do. And the book talks about techniques to do that is to learn to notice your feelings that cause you to steer your audit in the wrong direction that cause you to miss certain things.
00:19:49.380 –> 00:20:01.710
Gleb Tsipursky: And these are feelings of uncomfortable of discomfort. Again, what, like I said from the beginning, we feel a certain way we feel comfortable with certain decision with a certain direction the audit and we go with it.
00:20:02.220 –> 00:20:07.560
Gleb Tsipursky: And that’s a very bad choice when you feel comfortable with something that’s the first step to suspect
00:20:08.130 –> 00:20:17.250
Gleb Tsipursky: suspect that there might be something of if you feel comfortable with a certain direction because you will likely miss important information.
00:20:17.850 –> 00:20:30.720
Gleb Tsipursky: That’s often people relieved because you you would your gut intuitions are directing your way from dangerous from what you feel is a dangerous area relating to people. So that’s the first step. Notice
00:20:31.470 –> 00:20:33.030
Jason Mefford: And I’m glad that you said that
00:20:33.030 –> 00:20:37.770
Jason Mefford: And you said the 80 to 90% too because that’s what I’ve been trying to preach to people.
00:20:38.550 –> 00:20:42.900
Jason Mefford: Because again, and kind of the analytical side from an from another perspective.
00:20:43.290 –> 00:20:54.930
Jason Mefford: We think everything is supposed to be logical, but it’s not. And so even, you know, again, from from them trying to help influence within the organization or get people to make decisions.
00:20:55.380 –> 00:21:06.540
Jason Mefford: They have to realize those, not only are we making decisions based on emotions, but other people are as well. Right. So you can’t just go into something with a logical argument.
00:21:07.020 –> 00:21:15.390
Jason Mefford: And believe that you’re going to come out victorious in that you have, you have to get back to actually thinking about the emotional side of it. So, okay.
00:21:15.870 –> 00:21:17.310
Jason Mefford: So that’s first one emotions. The first
00:21:17.310 –> 00:21:25.320
Gleb Tsipursky: One. Yes. The first one, notice your emotions, make sure that they are not steering do in the wrong direction. And the second one is
00:21:25.680 –> 00:21:30.870
Gleb Tsipursky: Focus on the emotions of others. So you slowly start talking about this Jason and this is a big issue.
00:21:31.440 –> 00:21:37.410
Gleb Tsipursky: I was talking to someone from a bank a bank or an auditor, who was the chief risk officer of a bank.
00:21:38.040 –> 00:21:49.920
Gleb Tsipursky: Who was laid off. Unfortunately, because he came in to meetings. And he pointed out some serious issues, some serious risk that the bank was taking on that it shouldn’t have.
00:21:50.370 –> 00:21:57.540
Gleb Tsipursky: And he was going against the sales team at the bank and the sales team are saying. Now let’s make these loans. Let’s make these loans.
00:21:57.780 –> 00:22:03.630
Gleb Tsipursky: And he was saying. Now that’s dangerous. Don’t do that. Don’t do that. And eventually the leadership sided with the sales team.
00:22:03.960 –> 00:22:10.950
Gleb Tsipursky: Partially because of the tone that he was employing and that they saw him as going against the profitability of the bank.
00:22:11.430 –> 00:22:22.950
Gleb Tsipursky: So he didn’t know how to effectively communicate his among his risk assessment to the leadership in such a way that the leadership would buy into his risk assessment what he should have done.
00:22:23.520 –> 00:22:30.780
Gleb Tsipursky: Is thought about the emotions of everyone. First, because again, they’re driven by emotions, just like you are everyone else’s
00:22:30.990 –> 00:22:37.380
Gleb Tsipursky: So what are the emotions of the leadership, the leadership of course wants to make a profit. So let’s see. I wanted to make a profit. That’s kind of a main
00:22:37.800 –> 00:22:43.080
Gleb Tsipursky: Point the salesperson wanted to make a sale. That doesn’t mean profit they wanted to make a sale.
00:22:43.740 –> 00:22:57.090
Gleb Tsipursky: So what you need to think about is, okay, the salesperson wants to make a sale. There’ll be pushing for sale at pretty much any cause. So that’s, that’s them the CEO wants to make sure the company is profitable.
00:22:57.690 –> 00:23:06.960
Gleb Tsipursky: Now, how does the CEO. Make sure the company is profitable. One way is to of course increase sales, but that will increase the risk if you make sell to the wrong people.
00:23:07.650 –> 00:23:15.870
Gleb Tsipursky: That for banks, that’s a bad idea. So what you need to do is to think about their emotions and appeal to their emotions, say, hey,
00:23:16.170 –> 00:23:28.530
Gleb Tsipursky: Our goals are the same, you know, talk to the CEO or talk to the CFO, talk to the operations people our goals are the same. We want to make sure that the bank is profitable don’t come in and say, and being Mr know
00:23:29.010 –> 00:23:36.330
Gleb Tsipursky: You know, don’t be don’t that’s not the right approach. You want to be Mr profit. You want to say how do we ensure profitability in the long run.
00:23:36.600 –> 00:23:48.510
Gleb Tsipursky: You know, here the kind of risks we take on from this sale this sale will likely result in so much profit and so much loss, depending on the risk you know if the risk. If the profit is
00:23:49.080 –> 00:24:01.770
Gleb Tsipursky: Let’s say 5 million from a certain SALE BUT YOU HAVE A loss risk you have a risk 50% risk of losing 20 million, then you have a effectively a 5 million loss.
00:24:02.730 –> 00:24:05.730
Gleb Tsipursky: So you want to point that out. Here’s the risk. Here’s the loss.
00:24:06.360 –> 00:24:16.530
Gleb Tsipursky: And you can choose to make the investment but you have a very high chance of losing within five years, you know, the terms of the loan. You have a very high chance of losing 5 million. That’s pretty bad.
00:24:16.830 –> 00:24:22.620
Gleb Tsipursky: So how do we make sure that we have profit. So get yourself on the same side, get yourself in the same tribe.
00:24:22.920 –> 00:24:31.230
Gleb Tsipursky: Because what this guy did is essentially put himself into the opposite tribe and they just had a lot of fights and conflicts, you want to get yourself on the same side. Want to make sure that
00:24:31.950 –> 00:24:42.960
Gleb Tsipursky: People orient toward the long term and just show the mathematical consequences of the risk if, again, if it’s a 50% low percent risk of losing
00:24:43.710 –> 00:24:53.430
Gleb Tsipursky: To of losing 20 million. That’s a $10 million loss versus the 5 million profit. That’s pretty simple. So what you want to do is just show the profit show the long term consequences.
00:24:53.730 –> 00:25:06.150
Gleb Tsipursky: Of certain steps and help the leadership make the right choice by orienting by being on their side appealing to their emotions going to where they want to go. And that’s the
00:25:06.690 –> 00:25:22.200
Gleb Tsipursky: effective strategy of how do you communicate as the internal auditor. How do you communicate to the leadership, make them help them buy into what you want to achieve by talking their language talk the language of profit. Don’t talk the language of risk.
00:25:23.250 –> 00:25:24.960
Jason Mefford: Yeah, well, and I like that.
00:25:27.150 –> 00:25:37.020
Jason Mefford: Like that the language of profit, because you know the experience or that that example that you just gave them that chief risk officer. I see that quite often.
00:25:37.530 –> 00:25:41.430
Jason Mefford: In internal audit yeah and and it’s you know they’re they’re well meaning.
00:25:42.000 –> 00:25:48.150
Jason Mefford: They, they, they see the risk because like you said, you know, they can look at the numbers, and they see it and they realize
00:25:48.540 –> 00:25:58.980
Jason Mefford: You know, okay, I understand that you, you know, want to do this, but the numbers. Just don’t make sense. Right. And so they’re trying to warn their they’re trying to
00:25:59.970 –> 00:26:07.560
Jason Mefford: Help the organization, but the way in which they do it ends up alienating themselves from everybody else.
00:26:08.010 –> 00:26:14.070
Jason Mefford: And like you said you know that that eventually they looked at that chief risk officer as as somebody who was
00:26:14.550 –> 00:26:20.490
Jason Mefford: Trying to hurt the organization or look, you’re, you’re not trying to help us get profit here, you’re just telling us know we can do this.
00:26:21.180 –> 00:26:29.490
Jason Mefford: And it’s human nature. If you’re around somebody that tells you know all the time. And you’ve got the decision making authority, you’re going to kick that person.
00:26:29.910 –> 00:26:31.860
Jason Mefford: Out of the tribe, if you will. Right.
00:26:31.890 –> 00:26:47.580
Jason Mefford: Yep, this is where that tribalism comes back in. So, you know, like you said, I love how, you know, instead of talking in the language of risk talk in the language of profit, you know, help them understand kind of that risk reward.
00:26:49.470 –> 00:26:54.720
Jason Mefford: Trade off because with every risk we take, there should be a reward.
00:26:55.020 –> 00:27:12.990
Jason Mefford: And the reward should be higher. But the problem comes in and kind of economically and, you know, with the way the numbers were at some point you cross the line. Yes. So where the more risk you take on. Yeah, you’re hoping for more reward, but the less likely it is to come along.
00:27:13.680 –> 00:27:15.570
Jason Mefford: Right when you when you start getting above a
00:27:15.570 –> 00:27:27.510
Jason Mefford: 50% probability of a major loss, like you said, in that instance, right, you know, to where you were, you were effectively looking at a $5 million mathematical loss.
00:27:27.990 –> 00:27:38.340
Jason Mefford: If you went down that road. Now, in the first year or two, it might not be. But then you give it back at the end. And that’s the issue that I think so many people
00:27:39.360 –> 00:27:47.010
Jason Mefford: You know, for forget or this overconfidence comes in as we’re going to make it work in the first couple years. The problem is you give it back.
00:27:47.640 –> 00:27:58.560
Jason Mefford: And you see this over and over again and companies making decisions in the short term, that they think are good, but in the long term, it hurts the organization to give back.
00:27:58.980 –> 00:28:02.700
Gleb Tsipursky: That’s right. I like the high of phrase of giving back. It’s a good way of approaching and
00:28:03.000 –> 00:28:14.790
Gleb Tsipursky: And the long term is the critical thing here, the long term is the really important thing. So one of the cognitive biases that I talked about in the book, very dangerous is called hyperbolic discounting where people discount the
00:28:15.240 –> 00:28:20.580
Gleb Tsipursky: Long term for the sake of the short term, they don’t think about the long term nearly enough.
00:28:20.970 –> 00:28:30.030
Gleb Tsipursky: They don’t wait nearly enough. And as a chief risk officer. It’s your goal, it’s your job to help them understand the actual risk over the whole course of the deal.
00:28:30.270 –> 00:28:38.670
Gleb Tsipursky: If it’s a five year loan, then you look at the five years and now they don’t just look at the first two years and look at the risk over the five years. And, of course, that
00:28:39.090 –> 00:28:52.260
Gleb Tsipursky: So you help them. Look at the profit and you get in their side. The other thing you want to think about is help them solve the problem be the problem solver, not the problem poser. Don’t say here’s the problem, you deal with it.
00:28:52.770 –> 00:28:59.580
Gleb Tsipursky: They CEOs hate that leaders hate that is both hated don’t do that, say, hey,
00:28:59.910 –> 00:29:13.860
Gleb Tsipursky: I discovered that here is an opportunity for improvement, how can we work together as the whole tribe of the leadership team to solve this problem and improve the situation. Such a way that we can minimize the risk maximize the reward.
00:29:14.400 –> 00:29:23.490
Gleb Tsipursky: If you frame it that way, executives love jumping on a problem and problem solving, where to improve the situation that’s that. I mean, that’s their bread and butter.
00:29:23.760 –> 00:29:29.490
Gleb Tsipursky: They’ll get into the weeds, they’ll kind of look at it and you provided them with opportunity to do that. They will like you
00:29:30.000 –> 00:29:41.970
Gleb Tsipursky: Because you provided them with the opportunity. So think about liking and disliking help them like you by providing them with the opportunity to minimize the risk maximize reward and make decisions based on that. Yeah.
00:29:42.600 –> 00:29:44.250
Jason Mefford: Well, no. I think that’s, that’s a great
00:29:46.320 –> 00:29:54.870
Jason Mefford: That’s a great thing again for the Internal Auditors to consider, because I think so much of the time. And this is where I talk about becoming a trusted advisor.
00:29:55.410 –> 00:30:11.460
Jason Mefford: To management and and i think too much of the time we we focus on bringing the problems to management and never either help provide a solution or allow a way to help a solution come out of that.
00:30:12.900 –> 00:30:21.330
Jason Mefford: In. There’s a lot of deeper things in the profession about, you know, I can’t really help because I have to be independent, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, which is a load of crap.
00:30:21.780 –> 00:30:33.780
Jason Mefford: In a lot of ways. Okay. It’s like you got to you’re all you’re all on the same team, you know, because, because if the company ends up having a business failure, you’re out of a job, just like everybody else.
00:30:34.290 –> 00:30:47.940
Jason Mefford: And ultimately your paycheck is paid by the company. So you might as well be a part of the team, instead of being viewed as that person that nobody wants to talk to. And there’s kind of, you know, just shoved off to the side.
00:30:49.200 –> 00:30:55.230
Jason Mefford: You know, help them solve the problems, help them think long term you know in in we can provide that
00:30:56.160 –> 00:31:04.830
Jason Mefford: That different perspective. Right, and I think this is one of those things to where you know like you said this, the tribalism can be a problem.
00:31:05.130 –> 00:31:14.520
Jason Mefford: Because it’s group think. Right. The tribalism is group think. And so you have to have some of these you know contrary views.
00:31:14.910 –> 00:31:20.490
Jason Mefford: And again, we don’t want to just be the contrarian all the time because again we just look like a jerk.
00:31:20.970 –> 00:31:31.680
Jason Mefford: But you know some of those other points have to be brought up but like you said you have to think about how you’re going to do that and think about it from an emotional perspective as well.
00:31:32.970 –> 00:31:38.670
Jason Mefford: And you can’t go into it, saying, you know, I know better than you. That’s never going to work well.
00:31:40.080 –> 00:31:40.740
Jason Mefford: Never
00:31:41.310 –> 00:31:55.980
Gleb Tsipursky: Ever. This is about kind of the social hierarchy, the CEO is above you, in the social hierarchy and that’s okay. You want to understand that he or she most likely he wants to feel like the, you know, like the alpha monkey.
00:31:57.480 –> 00:32:01.020
Gleb Tsipursky: And that’s kind of the alpha male in the tribe alpha female
00:32:01.470 –> 00:32:11.550
Gleb Tsipursky: And you want to help them feel that way, help them feel that they’re in charge, and they will solve the problem you bring the problem to them, not like you know this is the dump it in their lap, like you said, Jason.
00:32:11.820 –> 00:32:15.030
Gleb Tsipursky: Just say here, and how can we address the situation to improve it.
00:32:15.510 –> 00:32:23.400
Gleb Tsipursky: And this is not about being independent of the team. You never want to do that. You want to look at things objectively yourself.
00:32:23.610 –> 00:32:33.690
Gleb Tsipursky: But then separate that objective. Look at the thing at the situation by yourself from how you bring it to the team. You can still be independent, you can still be objective.
00:32:34.230 –> 00:32:41.340
Gleb Tsipursky: But you want to be part of the team when you’re resolving the problem, because in the end it’s all for the goal of the organization succeeding.
00:32:42.030 –> 00:32:48.090
Jason Mefford: Yeah. Well, as you were saying that it actually kind of reminded me because I was, I was actually just recording some other information.
00:32:48.630 –> 00:32:54.270
Jason Mefford: And was talking about the old book, How to Win Friends and Influence People by Dale Carnegie
00:32:54.780 –> 00:33:05.550
Jason Mefford: And and one of the points that he brings up in there. Is he said, you know, let the other person feel like it’s their decision. Yes, or that it’s their idea, you know, if you want to, you know,
00:33:06.240 –> 00:33:13.650
Jason Mefford: Make friends, you know, might might be kind of a weird term now but have it have a good relationship with other people and help be able to invite
00:33:13.650 –> 00:33:14.370
Gleb Tsipursky: part of a team.
00:33:14.610 –> 00:33:23.070
Jason Mefford: Be part of the team. Hey, you know what, we don’t have to take the credit for it. Let other people believe that it’s their idea or that thing came to it on their own.
00:33:23.490 –> 00:33:32.760
Jason Mefford: That’s going to go over much better as far as being a part of the team. Because again, like you said, not only do we need to help them think about the long term.
00:33:33.150 –> 00:33:47.610
Jason Mefford: But I think we need to stand back to and say what’s the right decision for the long term in this relationship. Yes, you know, within the company as well. And it’s okay to lose the battles. If you win the war.
00:33:48.120 –> 00:34:00.900
Jason Mefford: And so, you know, like I said, you know that that example you gave about the chief risk officer. I’ve seen so many chief executives that want to that want to win every battle and no damn it. I’m arise.
00:34:01.350 –> 00:34:05.130
Jason Mefford: And they keep fighting and fighting and fighting and then they feel almost
00:34:07.260 –> 00:34:10.440
Jason Mefford: Sometimes it can cross over to feeling almost self righteous
00:34:10.950 –> 00:34:17.910
Jason Mefford: In that, you know, look, I told him, and I, you know, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, kind of thing. And it’s like, no, yeah, you, you didn’t help.
00:34:18.210 –> 00:34:24.750
Jason Mefford: Because you can only help if you’re a part of the team. If you get kicked out of the team. You can help anymore. Yep.
00:34:24.780 –> 00:34:33.870
Gleb Tsipursky: I think that’s very insightful kind of the feeling of righteousness. I mean, look at all the people are debating with others on the internet. How often does that change people’s minds.
00:34:34.290 –> 00:34:40.290
Gleb Tsipursky: That debating with others on the internet. It doesn’t change people’s minds and it really all doesn’t change people’s minds.
00:34:40.860 –> 00:34:45.660
Gleb Tsipursky: It just creates more aggression more defensiveness. If you try to argue and win every fight.
00:34:46.260 –> 00:34:55.170
Gleb Tsipursky: I well. Instead of that, if you problem solve and collaborate and you present yourself as a problem solver collaborator improver in charge.
00:34:55.530 –> 00:35:01.860
Gleb Tsipursky: There, rather than, you know, the Mr know that’s going to get you much further like Jason said, so that’s
00:35:02.160 –> 00:35:08.880
Gleb Tsipursky: The way. That’s what I talked about in the book, how do you effectively do that, what kind of specific techniques and strategies specific
00:35:09.390 –> 00:35:21.690
Gleb Tsipursky: Choices in your language specific choices in your body telling how do you carry yourself in such a way that you can avoid these cognitive biases for yourself and help your organization of with Amazon.
00:35:22.380 –> 00:35:36.540
Jason Mefford: Well, I know we didn’t we just scratched the surface of the book. So for everybody. This list and go out and get the book. Never go with your gut. How to Apply how pioneering business leaders make the best decisions and avoid business failures.
00:35:38.160 –> 00:35:48.480
Jason Mefford: Because yeah, I’m excited to dig deeper into this now to and and you’ve you’ve helped kind of confirm a lot of the stuff that I’ve been saying and studies that I’ve been reading as well.
00:35:48.480 –> 00:35:49.740
Jason Mefford: And I know when I say some of
00:35:49.740 –> 00:35:51.870
Jason Mefford: This stuff people are probably like Jason, you’re crazy.
00:35:52.710 –> 00:35:54.210
Jason Mefford: No gloves and academic
00:35:55.260 –> 00:36:06.930
Jason Mefford: He knows right. It’s not just me that a lot of these things are going on as as they are. So we kind of run out of time. Today, we might have to do something else in the future because like I
00:36:06.930 –> 00:36:09.630
Jason Mefford: Said we just scratched the surface. So,
00:36:11.280 –> 00:36:19.170
Jason Mefford: We make sure that I got this right to so if people want to reach out to you because I know you do you do in house training you actually go into companies.
00:36:19.560 –> 00:36:27.600
Jason Mefford: Mentioned I sacca you’re out on the association network as well. So giving you know speeches all day seminar kind of stuff for him.
00:36:28.410 –> 00:36:37.800
Jason Mefford: How can people reach out to you, you know, as well, if they’re interested in. They’re like, hey, I want to learn more. How can they, how can they find you, as the best way to find you. Well,
00:36:37.860 –> 00:36:43.560
Gleb Tsipursky: Besides, of course, checking out my book. Never go with your gut, how pioneering leaders make the best decisions and avoid business disasters.
00:36:43.980 –> 00:36:52.830
Gleb Tsipursky: Just go on my website disaster avoidance experts com again disaster avoidance experts that calm and there’s a section there for speaking I speak to
00:36:53.130 –> 00:36:58.680
Gleb Tsipursky: Associations over time. I speak for internal companies all the time to trainings inside companies.
00:36:59.010 –> 00:37:09.930
Gleb Tsipursky: And you can see the consulting and coaching section, the consulting will be most relevant for internal auditors. So how do I look at an organization and help the internal auditor team play nicely.
00:37:10.080 –> 00:37:11.130
Gleb Tsipursky: With the leadership.
00:37:12.240 –> 00:37:16.380
Gleb Tsipursky: And make better decisions right because the better decisions you make.
00:37:16.440 –> 00:37:17.850
Jason Mefford: The more successful, you’re going to be
00:37:18.120 –> 00:37:22.680
Gleb Tsipursky: Including decisions about these people issues and how do you address people issues.
00:37:23.010 –> 00:37:33.540
Gleb Tsipursky: Both internally. You know when you’re not talking to the CEO, how do you address a challenging people issue when people are not willing to comply with appropriate risk standards.
00:37:33.870 –> 00:37:44.610
Gleb Tsipursky: You know, cyber security issues. One of the biggest ones I deal with. And of course, then how they talk to the leadership in such a way that leadership will actually listen to you as opposed to ignore your opinion.
00:37:45.030 –> 00:37:50.550
Gleb Tsipursky: And take their own actions. So how to do that. So that’s what I focus on, you can always reach out to me.
00:37:50.760 –> 00:38:02.700
Gleb Tsipursky: If you have any questions about anything I said at my email glib GL OB at disaster avoidance experts.com again glib at disaster avoidance experts.
00:38:03.000 –> 00:38:20.430
Gleb Tsipursky: Com and connect with me on LinkedIn, happy to chat to people there again globe support escapes. My name is going to be duck lips LinkedIn so jail. He be Ti si p you are sky. And if you want to follow me on twitter glib underscore support ski. Alright, perfect.
00:38:20.910 –> 00:38:28.080
Jason Mefford: And we’ll make sure and include all that stuff in the show notes as well. So I know if I’m a visual person, so I need to see stuff.
00:38:28.260 –> 00:38:33.150
Jason Mefford: So it will be down in the show notes as well but reach out to grab gnosis stuff, as you can tell.
00:38:33.150 –> 00:38:38.790
Jason Mefford: So far, and like I said, we’ll have to get in a little bit deeper probably in the future.
00:38:39.930 –> 00:38:43.890
Jason Mefford: So on a future episode or webinar or something. We’ll have to have you back. So
00:38:44.340 –> 00:38:45.060
Gleb Tsipursky: Happy to Jason
00:38:45.270 –> 00:38:52.890
Jason Mefford: Thanks again for your time today. And thanks, everybody, for listening and I’ll catch you on the next episode of jammin with Jason